In the world of journalism, Bill Moyers Journal is one of the best shows on TV right now. This week's show centered around secret tape recordings president Lydon Baines Johnson made during his presidency. In the recordings, LBJ discusses escalation of troops in Vietnam with aides such as Sec. of Defense Robert McNamara, among others.
The tapes are glaringly poignant, given the current situation in Afghanistan. As LBJ debated the roads to take, there were three choices. Pull out the majority of our forces, try the middle road of supporting the South Vietnamese via military/financial means, or send in substantially more troops.
Getting Out
Pulling out troops was a politically dangerous move to make. The American people would see it as defeat and political enemies would be sure to declare a cataclysmic fall of the dominoes.
The Middle Ground
The middle road faced the same problems in South Vietnam as Afghanistan faces today: A hopelessly corrupt local government, lack of support from the local population, and an unprepared and incompetent local army/militia.
Getting Deeper In
Gen. Westmoreland was requesting 41,000 additional troops. The president and his advisors knew that giving him the additional troops would lead to a snowball effect of troops in the future. McNamara called the situation, "a hell of a mess."
We all know the decision LBJ ended up making and the consequences it had. While Vietnam fell, the dominoes didn't. The threat of a red globe was real, but years after Vietnam, the Cold War came to an end as the Soviet Empire crumbled away from within. A significant contributing factor to that crumbling was the U.S.S.R.'s own Vietnam: Afghanistan. (Watch the Tom Hanks movie, Charlie Wilson's War for more on that.)
While today's situation in Afghanistan is similar to LBJ's Vietnam, differences are abound as well. The fight is against a different -ism this time. It is one without a superpower nation to support it, but instead consists of disparate, loosely connected gangs of religious zealots who all share a common hatred of America. If some form of 'victory' is ever achieved, it will not be in the form of a Berlin Wall, but rather some other, less tangible, symbol.
Let's look at a miracle situation. Five to ten years down the road, we destroy the inner workings of the Taliban and their poppy fields, wipe out major political corruption in Afghanistan and revive the country into a safe, democratic, functioning nation. Even if this happens, there will still be scores of other Bin Ladens out there chanting "Down with America," plotting and hoping for another 9/11.
If Obama decides not to listen to Gen. McChrystal's recommendation of 45,000 additional troops, Fox News and the Rush Limbaughs of the world will surely tear him a new one. The American public might do the same. This is the kind of decision that people from the left and right will be talking about in 2012. Pulling out of Afghanistan will be seen as weak. Obama's patriotism will be called into question. Victory will be declared by the Taliban. These will be the immediate consequences.
As for long-lasting consequences, no one can call it for sure. One thing is certain though, in the midst of economic peril, a dizzying deficit, and a health care system that is out of control, the fiscal consequences of a continuing commitment to Afghanistan is something worth considering. And then there's the human cost.
How many more American deaths will be worth the cost of success? What does success even look like? Can the United States and its people be safe without a large ground presence in Afghanistan? Will the next 9/11 be plotted from those mountains yet again? Will we ever catch Bin Laden?
These are all important questions that hover over our presence in Afghanistan. Anyone who claims to unequivocally know the answer should not be trusted. There is no black and white in this case, only gray. Unfortunately, the 24-hour news cycle and partisan politics don't see foreign policy in the foggy shade of gray it certainly is. Fortunately, I think we have a president who does. Let's hope he makes the right decision, whatever that may be.
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